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New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Game 1 Betting Odds
2010-10-07
Sportsbook.com Lines: New York -145, Minnesota +135 Total: 7.5
The defending World Series champs open up their title defense by sending CC Sabathia to the mound in Game 1, as outdoor October baseball returns to Minnesota for the first time in 40 years.
The big left-hander hopes to continue New York’s recent dominance of the Twins. The Yankees are 20-6 (+12.9 Units) against Minnesota over the past three years. Sabathia has enjoyed success of his own against the Twins, going 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA in 29 career starts against his ex-division rival. He’s won his last six starts against Minnesota, posting a miniscule 1.27 ERA over that span. Sabathia has also fared well on the road this year, taking a 10-5 mark and a 3.34 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup.
Fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA) will make the start for the Twins. Liriano has been one of the reasons the Twins posted the best home record in the AL this year, going 7-5 with a 3.11 ERA at Target Field. However, he enters the postseason on a rocky note after losing his last three starts and posting an 8.10 ERA over that span. He’s 0-2 in four career starts against the Yankees, but has a strong 3.33 ERA against New York. The Twins have dropped all four of Liriano’s starts against the Yanks.
Despite Liriano’s numbers against New York, this baseball betting trend found at Sportsbook.com sides with Minnesota Game 1:
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor base running team - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, in October games.
(42-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.8%, +35.6 units. Rating = 4*)
Play Against - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, starting over a rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (72-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +39.8 units. Rating = 3*).
With the most generous baseball Dime Lines around, make Sportsbook.com your home for your MLB playoffs betting.
MLB: Pitching mismatch in Orioles-Tigers contest2010-07-06If you consider nothing more than stats, there are some decisive starting pitching mismatches on the Tuesday night baseball slate, perhaps none bigger than that in Detroit between the Tigers’ Armando Galarraga and the Orioles’ Jake Arrieta. Not only that, but Detroit is in first place in the A.L. Central Division while Baltimore is in last in the A.L. East. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened the line for Tuesday’s contest at Tigers -170, but it has quickly shot up to -190 and could go much higher by game time, if bettors get a hold of a powerful system in play.
Galarraga (3-2, 4.50 ERA) was the talk of the majors when he essentially retired all 28 batters he faced June 2, the last after umpire Jim Joyce blew what would have been the game's final out at first base. However, he has a lowly 6.00 ERA since his controversial one-hitter, and the Detroit Tigers right-hander will look to bounce back from his shortest outing of the season when he takes the mound against the visiting Orioles.
Though it seemed like that might be an indication that Galarraga was reverting back to his form from his rookie 2008 season (13-7, 3.73 ERA), he has since looked more like the pitcher that went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA last season.
If there's hope for Galarraga, it's that he's pitched well at home even aside from the one-hitter. He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in five games at Comerica, but just 1-2 with a 7.78 ERA on the road.
Additionally, the Tigers (44-37) have proven difficult to beat at home regardless of who's on the mound. Detroit is an AL-best 28-12 at home.
Going for the Orioles, is Jake Arrieta (2-2, 5.81), who has the potential to be great, and the rookie right-hander won his first two major league starts while posting a 2.77 ERA. Since though, he's 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three.
Interim manager Juan Samuel certainly wasn't happy after Baltimore's fourth loss in five games Monday, hinting at roster changes - likely in his taxed bullpen - before the series continues.
"We're looking at a lot of things - whether we need an extra pitcher after using the 'pen so much today or whether we need another hitter," he said.
The extensive usage of the bullpen sets up against the Orioles in a very powerful FoxSheets Super Situation, one that has won six of every seven games over the last five seasons:
• Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. (59-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.5%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)
Galarraga’s success also draws a huge trend indicating to fade Baltimore:
• BALTIMORE is 1-18 (-16.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 3*)
Baltimore has done very little well this season, and playing on the road (9-32, -17.0 units) and at night (16-42, -21.8 units) have been two of the worst situational spots. Tonight of course, they combine.
The StatFox Power Rating Line shows Detroit -200, and it’s a good bet that the actual line at Sportsbook.com reaches that level or higher by first pitch, which is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET.
MLB Series Betting- Boston at Philadelphia2010-05-21It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs. For the 3-game set, Sportsbook.com lists Philadelphia as a -220 favorite.
Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.
Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.
Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.
Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.
Sportsbook.com has Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years.
The Phillies will look to change ways, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.
Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.
The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.
Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.
Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia
The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.
Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.
This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:25 Eastern.
Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia
We’ll give a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox, however, be aware you will need to lay -220 to collect, as Sportsbook.com’s series odds show: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220
MLB: Top MLB Weekend StatFox Betting Trends 9/25-9/272009-09-25There are only two full weekends left in the baseball regular season, then we move on to the playoffs. Unfortunately, unlike recent years, it seems that the drama normally associated with pennant races at this time of year has been minimized. The only two spots still relatively up for grabs are the A.L. Central title and the N.L. Wildcard. Read on as we look at the action affecting each of those races, plus reveal some this weekend’s Top StatFox Trends from every bet-able matchup for your consideration. Get more key info on each series from Sportbook.com on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.
Most baseball eyes are the American League Central Division race at this time. Heading into the weekend, three games separate the first place Tigers from the Twins. Minnesota has come on like gangbusters of late though, making things quite interesting. Manager Ron Gardenhire’s team is 9-1 in its last 10 games, winning by two or more runs in all but one of the victories. That stretch has made a lot of money for run line backers of the Twins in particular. They have scored six runs or more in seven of those 10 games, and have been very consistent. This weekend, Minnesota is in Kansas City, who has once again been relegated to the spoiler role. The Royals have been playing well of late too though, having won seven of their L11 games. Interestingly, the road team has won nine of the 12 head-to-head games between these teams in ’09.
Minnesota will be looking for help from the White Sox this weekend, as Chicago welcomes Detroit to the Windy City. Things have unraveled for Manager Ozzie Guillen’s team lately, as they have fallen out of the race by dropping seven of their last eight games. The Sox are 15-9 in their L24 when hosting the Tigers though. Detroit is 10-games under .500 on the road in ’09 for -10.4 net units.
No talk of American League Baseball would be complete this weekend without at least bringing up the Red Sox and Yankees, who play their final regular season head-to-head series of the year. It’s quite possible the teams will meet in the A.L. Championship series but for now, this could be the end of the rivalry for ’09. New York, who has won six of the last seven games between the teams, goes into the weekend with a 5-1/2 game lead in the East and a chance to clinch the division title with a series sweep.
In the National League, Atlanta has crept to within 3-1/2 games of the Rockies for the wildcard lead, while Florida and San Francisco are just 4 games back. For the three chasing teams, they will be looking for help from St. Louis, who visits Denver this weekend. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have little motivation beyond just continuing to play good baseball, since they are just a win or Cubs’ loss away from clinching the Central Division crown. The Rockies also swept the Cards in St. Louis back in June. The Braves will be in Washington for the weekend, while the Marlins host the Mets and San Francisco takes on the Cubs at home.
Take a look at these Top StatFox MLB Betting Trends before you hit the confirm button on any of your weekend baseball wagers.
ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 23-60 (-26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in 2009. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.2, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 20-54 (-31.7 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 3*)
NY METS at FLORIDA
NY METS are 19-33 (-15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in 2009. The average score was NY METS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-19 (-13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)
PHILADELPHIA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 2.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 12-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in 2009. The average score was COLORADO 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO is 14-7 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in September games in 2009. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
CHICAGO CUBS at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-16 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in 2009. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SEATTLE at TORONTO
TORONTO is 26-17 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was TORONTO 5.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at NY YANKEES
BOSTON is 2-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in 2009. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 2*)
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 15-28 (-12.6 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 in 2009. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at TEXAS
TAMPA BAY is 9-24 (-19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in 2009. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 38-24 (+10.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents in 2009. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX
DETROIT is 32-44 (-17.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 48-29 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season in 2009. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Betting Baseball in the Second Half2009-07-20With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played?...A lot! Stick with Sportsbook.com the rest of the way for the best in baseball wagering opportunities.
Playing Favorites is more costly
Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.
My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.
Find bad teams playing well
It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.
Ride Streaks Good and Bad
Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter
As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.
Follow home/road records
By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.
September can be scary
For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.
Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.
MLB Series Betting- Milwaukee at St. Louis2009-05-15The top two teams in the National League Central Division will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River for a weekend series. Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning nine of 11 and doing so in impressive fashion. The Brewers have scored 6.8 runs per game, while looking like “Harvey’s Wallbangers” (circa 1982), sending 18 balls over the fence. During this same period, opposing teams have only mustered just over four runs a contest, showing Milwaukee has really been clubbing the competition.
After a 2-4 road trip, St. Louis returns home for an attention-grabbing homestand. They start with Milwaukee, followed by the Cubs and commence interleague action against in- state rival Kansas City. Though seldom mentioned publicly, the Cardinals are one of the teams that do not enjoy the Brewers act. Milwaukee is known in baseball circles as being a bit showier about their actions and reactions. Skipper Tony LaRussa being more old-school in baseball traditions, doesn’t always appreciate some of what they do and over the last couple of years there has been a dust-up or two between these division rivals.
Milwaukee is 11-2 having won three of last four games and sends ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) up the hill. Gallardo was handed the role of being top pitcher for Milwaukee and has responded. He’s struck-out better than a batter per inning and has 1.80 ERA in last three starts. If he continues to pitch this way, he’ll improve the Brewers 24-7 record with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games.
The Cardinals will look to get Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) back on track after a pair of rugged outings. Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA in April, but has been bombed in first two starts in May for 13 runs, 16 hits (three home runs) in 10 1/3 innings. The Cardinals are 27-13 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start and Lohse has always been an effective pitcher at home against division teams with 37-17 mark (team’s record) during his career.
Sportsbook.com has Milwaukee as -115 road favorites with total of 8.5 and Lohse is 17-6 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons. (team's record) This being a low scoring affair would not be a surprise, with the Brewers 17-6 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and the Cards 13-3 UNDER at home vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.
Game 1 Edge: Milwaukee
Coming into the series, these were the No.2 and No.3 scoring teams in the National League behind the Dodgers. St. Louis has lost some of its firepower with outfielders Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel on the DL. This means they have to work harder to manufacture runs and would like to believe they have the right pitcher to help slow down Milwaukee offense. Adam Wainwright (3-1, 4.35) and the Redbirds are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and he’s been particularly effective if opponent has winning record with 10-1 mark. Milwaukee will need to have same patience they have shown at the dish all season in being second in baseball in walks and make Wainwright bring the ball up.
They will counter with Jeff Suppan (2-3, 5.50) who was part of the 2006 World Series championship team in the Gateway City. With the off day last Monday, that gave the righthander an extra day of rest and he is 4-0 pitching with five days between games. Suppan has enjoyed facing his old team and is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA since becoming a Brewer. Only negative is the Crew and Suppan are 3-10 in road games against teams with winning records.
Game 2 Edge: St. Louis
The Redbirds might have a slight advantage coming into this game as they were 9-5 playing in daylight compared to Milwaukee’s 6-5 mark before Saturday’s contest. The outcome could be decided early for the series finals. Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) has started poorly in most every start. Too many times, he's dug himself too deep a hole to be able to dig out, with opposing teams hitting an arresting .337 against him.
Milwaukee’s Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82) was on much the same path with 0-4 start, but has bounced back with consecutive wins. Surprisingly, the lefthander has not held lefty hitters in check, with them batting .321 against him compared to .246 by righty’s. Parra’s control is still an issue as he walks almost six batters per nine innings and has yet to get past six innings this season. The Cardinals are 7-4 against left-hand starters this season.
Game 3 Edge: Milwaukee
Milwaukee has won eight of 15 at the newer Busch Stadium and right now is in a great groove. This team has matured to the point of they now play much better on the road (9-7 this season) then in the past. If the Cardinals had all their top guns in the lineup, might be inclined to look their way, but since they don’t, the Brewers look like the play for this series wager.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Milwaukee +130, St. Louis -160
StatFox Edge Pick: Milwaukee
